Sunday, October 10, 2010

The "Life goes on" Stance

Maybe it's because I think too much, but I am the kind of person that likes making optimal decisions. I wonder if I am using the most optical technique for math problems, I wonder if the data structures and the functional relations are setup to write clean code, and I wonder if moving out to a more lively place, while costing more is better than living cheaper further way from the city.

Decisions, decisions, decisions. The problem is that one doesn't really know the end effects of a decision until having made them. For whatever known or unknown circumstances things may or may not go as according as planned. The question, is it really worth it worrying about all that stuff?

It's been ages since I played any Texas Hold'em poker, but I took away some very important lessons in life from this game. Texas hold'em poker is an incomplete information game, that is the beauty of this game-- the idea that you have to make decisions without knowing every piece of information available. You could still make the "best" decision given the information available and still lose and that is where the "risk management" aspects of the game kicks in. Sure you can have a 90% to win probability, but if you're playing all-in all the time then you are going to have your ass handed to you eventually. The moral of the story is that for whatever decision you make, even if it goes terribly wrong, you ought to be able to take the hits and keep on going (Rocky 6 reference).

An that's sort of the thing with life-- you do things, somethings fail some of them work out. Unforeseen circumstances kick you in the rear and sometimes pleasant unexpected surprises fall from the sky. But that's really all there is to it, no matter what happens, for better or worse, life simply goes on and there isn't much that you worrying can solve.

Being robust is more important than being optimal

There are too many things in life to worry about and worrying takes up precious time. It would be nice to reduce the amount of time worrying and increase productive time and state of mind. The simple solution is to make robust decisions, where the expected value if positive and failure is not catastrophic. That is not to say that one shouldn't make bold decisions; but for the bold decisions that you do make, you ought to be able to take the hit and still be able to stand if things don't work out. The interesting thing though about a lot of optimization mechanics is that risk/robustness analysis is often forgotten and left as a hidden variable-- things work out nicely unless something fails.

Being robust also means that you can set yourself up for some high yield/high risk (relative) situations since you could have a fall back setup should things don't work out. I'll say it here, but knowing how to be robust and knowing how to take chances and succeeding at them is a key ingredient when it comes to being successful (and even sexy).

The point is to not let failures be hangups or crippling and keep moving on. Oddly enough, this almost sounds like an investment strategy.

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