Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Experimenting with the Long Short Portfolio

Since June I've started with experimenting with the "long/short" portfolio where cash is deployed to buy companies that I have some potential upside and short companies where there is a good amount of down side based on fundamental analysis.

My screens so far have found very few good companies to buy where as I've found far more companies since over the summer period (June to August) where were my (albeit crude) models have indicated that they were over priced. It is interesting to see that the over market trend since over the summer has pushed the price of many companies downwards to the point where many companies that were over valued somewhat more in line with the prices where they should be (or to the point where betting against them is certainly not worth the time).

Interestingly, integration of the models applied into mid-long term trading decisions have shown positive results sine mid-June. The long positions have generally kept the portfolio flat where as going against the worst companies have yielded the biggest returns due to the risk off nature of the markets that we are seeing of late. The portfolio currently stands with close to a 50%-50% split between long and short positions.

The plot below shows a good negative correlation with the market, especially with the worst companies bringing in most of the gains (performance in purple).

When will be the right time to start rebalancing the portfolio? I am not entirely sure just yet, I still think there is more downside action to occur. Only time will tell, in the mean time--more time needs to be invested to developing better valuation models.