Macbook

So I managed to get my hands on a macbook recently and started learning how to use it. There are obvious differences when it comes to using one of these machines compared to a Windows or Linux machine. One thing that drives me up the wall is that I still haven't figured out how folder navigation works other than double clicking on icons to open them; the standard "hitting enter" on files or folders doesn't work here.

There are other notable differences; for example, the function (F1~F12 keys) are actually mapped primairly to notebook functions (like screen brightness, volume control and etc) and you have to use a function key to activate their "normal" behaviors (ie function-F5 for refresh). There are, of course more things that I need to get used to, like how applications are installed and removed (things work slightly differently compared to usual Linux machines) so it'll take some time to figure those things out.

I still remember my first venture into the linux world after buying the first version of the EEE-PC. It took a good week of tinkering to really figure out how to do software installation and figure out what packages I needed for things like multi-lingual support (I also ended up killing the OS a few times by deleting the wrong things too). I suspect that I'll probably fall through similar pitfalls while learning how to use the mac.

One thing that I do like about using the mac, however is the polished multimedia editing tools, which are leaps and bounds superior compared to the open source alternatives. I guess when it comes to software that you pay for, it is what you get.

Interms of the interface, I like it because it has a cleaner look compared to the usual windows interface and the applications look pretty good. Still haven't had a lot of time to tinker with things but will be looking forward to playing around with the computer some more when I have time. After pretty much graduating from playing games on Windows, there really isn't much of a reason to stick around to a single platform anymore.

The effects of radiation being felt in Tokyo

A friend of mine posted that the "air tasted like metal," though unaware of it, those are signs of elevated radiation. The government had reported elevated levels (though not physically damaging [yeah right?]) of radiation in Tokyo this afternoon. Work has been cancelled for tomorrow and the day after so I am making plans to relocate out of Tokyo for at least until this weekend.

CNN's coverage of the Earthquate is crapy

I generally abhor news reporting just because they always focus on disaster, scandal and damage all the time. Maybe it is an American thing, but for the first time in a long while, I am currently at a friend's house watching the news with a Japanese news feed and CNN's news feed side by side. And I have to say, I am in awe of how shoddy CNN's reporting is. Nothing but the same clips of the Fukushima explosion over and over again, exceptionally dumbed down explanation (read, elementary level?) explanation of a nuclear power plant and more. I am surprised that they do not have any bilingual reporters translating and reporting on the direct press conferences from the Japanese government.

Though the Japanese news stations, through do replay some clips of the damage out here, I am far more aware of the evacuation process and the condition of people around the Sendai area; which I think is far more important compared to just talking about the "massive damage" from the earthquake.

News organizations have too much power over the way people form their opinions about the world and I don't think they are good enough to handle that kind of responsibility.

Backing up data as a precaution

Going to be leaving the home for a bit to meet up with some family. Decided to backup some critical data to the cloud, just incase I won't be able to return. In disaster, the internet is incredibly handy.

More info from a friend in Sendai

More people are coming online on Facebook reporting that they are ok. Seems like shelters are taking care of people there. One friend was able to cook several days worth of food. My friend reports that there is no power or electricity. Seems like power is up and down depending on location.

People tweeting real time on the news

Been watching the news online and there is an integrated tweet feed. Most tweets are pretty useless and I wish there was a way to block them.

Note to self: look at sources of reliable and unreliable tweets.

From the Sendai City webpage

For those that are interested. Sendai city home page is up:

http://www.city.sendai.jp/

-Bus service is intermittent in some places, operational in others
-Hospitals accepting patients in severe conditions
-People are recommended to stay home
-Natural gas service is intermittent
-People without water can have access through sources at schools
-Garbage collection not in service

Hitting the supermarket in the morning was smart

The super markets and convienance stores were busy today. People have been stocking up on food since the quake. I now have about 1 weeks worth of food cooked and prepared. Other friends have mentioned that some stores are empty of food that can be immediately consumed.

Japanese reporters on radiation levels and evacuation distances

Looks like the reporters are seeding panic by wondering if the evacuations distances are sufficient. They are worried about the government covering up information and if the evacuation distances are sufficient. Exceptionally pissed off at the talking heads that they aren't doing any research.

I wish there was some kind of market to force them into a bet... where I can bet against them.

Sendai Status via Twitter

For those that know Japanese:

Via Tetu on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mahhya94/status/46425985838620672

青葉区五橋の姉と連絡つきました。13：22現在 避難はしていない様子。街中は建物もそんなに壊れてないと。 30分前13時ごろ電気復旧。水も復旧

Translation:

Go in touch with sister in Aobaku-Itsutsubashi. As of 13:22 does not seem to be evacuated. Buildings do not seem to be that damaged. At about 13:00, power restored, water running

Via Tetu on twitter: http://twitter.com/tetumemo/status/46476055724298240

【追加情報仙台市の友人から】仙台市役所前のみ電力供給あり、取引先の会社へ避難中。　長町南から長町駅、商店街付近は建物の倒壊は無いものの道路がうねり、交通が困難

Translation:

(Further information from friend in Sendai)Power only available in front of city hall, taken refuge in company building. At south Naga-machi, objects on streets not from fallen buildings on streets. Traffic is hard.

I've heard further reports that water isn't running in some areas...

Fukushima Nuclear plant explosion:

Calculations on the radiation levels:
Current reported dosage levels @ 1000*normal.
Normal radiation dosage @ 2.4 mSv/year
need 1~2 Sv dosage to start to feel nausea or vomiting -> time to that occurs is about 5 ~10 months assuming that you are *at* the power plant.

Dosage levels will probably drop in an inverse squared power law away from the power plant. Meaning we've got plenty of time to react.

Sources:

Radiation rate @ 1000 x normal: http://bit.ly/eGht2S
Radiation poisoning levels: http://bit.ly/bRheP6

Quake notes

Random news articles:

• Fukushima Evacuation
• Japanese Strict Building codes
• Quake warning system

News Streams:

• TBS TV
• NHK TV
• Al Jazerra

Facebook, faster in disasters

Spent most of the evening and night yesterday on Facebook reading from friends reporting in that their families are ok in Sendai. SMS and cell phone contact is really slow and I thought it was ironic that it was faster for me to Skype home and contact people through facebook. I'll make a mental note of that for the future. So much information just came so fast that I hadn't the chance to organize it into a post... the damage in Sendai is extensive and we are still having aftershocks.

I think I am going to take it easy today... wonder if the grocery stores still have food.

Earthquake, I am ok

Incredibly sad the earthquake hit Sendai. I've been to some of the places they've shown on TV with damage. I am ok at least. Lots of information going through Facebook right now. Checking with friends in Sendai to see if they are ok.

Thinking about the Monkey Portfolio

In the old days of high school we used to have multiple choice scantron tests and we used to call the monkey score the score you would get if you just randomly started choosing answers. We used to have 5 possible choices on these tests so the monkey score would be 20%.

I was having a conversation with a friend recently about financial planning and the guy is a financial planner actually. During the discussion my friend proclaimed to me that he could structure a portfolio for clients with different risk characteristics with averaged annual returns ranging between 6%~12% and that he would recommend a 12% portfolio for young people for fast growth. His reasoning behind that was that you could take any 10 year window of the stock market and find that the market compounds at an average of 10%. Since he worked at a financial institution, they had better tools to get better returns which warranted that they could get that 12%. I decided to take his statements to task to really see if this was the case... unfortunately it wasn't.

To be generous, I decided to take a nearly 30 year span of the stock market starting in June 1981 until Feb 2011 (chosen at random) to calculate compounding rate. As of June 6 1981 the Dow Jones index was at 976.88 compared to Feb 1 2011 value of 12130.45, which is a 12.4x increase. Calulating for the compounding interest rate, all I would have to do it take the root of this between the time span to find that the compounding rate to be approximately 8.86% over a 30 year period. The result is striking to me that a 10% compounding rate is optimistic at best and 12% is a bit out there.

The Dow Jones Index since June 1981 to Feb 2011

So next, I decided to do take this a step further and assumed that I invested into the market at a constant rate of $1000/month for whatever the price the Dow Jones Index was going for until the beginning of Feb 2011, what would the annual compounding rate be after ~ 30 years? The result is illustrated in the graph below:

 

Compounding rate calculated while making constant contributions

Sure there is a lot of movement in the compounding rate in the initial few months but as time slogs along the compounding rate begins to stabilize at 6% but drops down to 4.7% after the recent economic crash. From the results we are nowhere close to achieving the 10% compounding rate that was initially proposed. Just as a note, the graph bottom axis is in months but has the same time span as the above Dow Jones plot, I was just too lazy to change the axis.

The gains however are still significant even at a lower compounding rate though, assuming a $1000 contribution into the fun over 356 months, the total contribution turns out to be $357k (assuming +$1000 at month 0) with a portfolio value of  $1.38 million after nearly 30 years of constant investing. Sure the market might have had compound growth in the upper 8% range, but the dollar cost averaged purchases of stocks over the past 30 years tells a different story. The guy was obviously making a pitch at me and setting reference points is a common sales tactic, but the reality of the matter is that a 10% continual compounding rate is optimistic. When it comes to financial advice and products, keep your wits about you.