Earlier I made some predictions on the future of computing, with the rise of ultra portable systems last year in August. That prediction came to fruition late last year with the release of the EEE PC (my short review) and then Apple's Air.
With every passing year, computing technology advances with incredible leaps and bounds, pushing the envelope of performance upwards and the cost of a computer unit considerably down. We are now entering a phase where computers are becoming ultra-cheap. The EEE PC sells for approximately $400 for a "7 portable computer. Basic bare-bones desktop systems can be had for as low as $225 and there is going to be more of this in the future. One thing is obvious to me with these prices in mind, Microsoft and it's Windows platform is going to be in trouble over the coming years. The point I make should be obvious when I start talking about the price of Windows.
"The price of Windows!? Since when was the last time did anyone buy Windows?" might you wonder. For the most part, most people do not make a conscious decision to buy Windows, but Microsoft's business model is partly based on earning revenues from OEM computers with a pre-installed version of Windows. Current prices of windows online indicate that the cheapest version of Win XP goes for a price tag of $99 and the more expensive Windows Vista goes for $140 to about $190 depending on the flavor of Vista you get.
Before when the cheapest computer systems ran for at least $1000 the price of the included OS for approximately $100 was not very noticeable and most people just gritted their teeth and bit the bullet when making a computer purchase. However, things have now changed. As prices for a complete system hit in the sub $400 range, it is apparent that the relative price of the operating system has balloned into the ballpark of 20%-50% of your computer purchase. This will be unacceptable to a consumer considering their options.
Consider the following. A $300 system with a $100 (minimum) Windows OS for $400 total compared to the same computer with a Linux operating system (costing $0) for $300 total. I think that many people will now start thinking twice before buying a computer with Windows. In addition, I also believe that computer vendors are going to be very conscious about the competitive price point and will likely start dropping Windows in the ultra-cheap computer market segment. Microsoft will invariably have to reduce the relative price of their operating system to stay viable while taking a hit to profits. The only thing they have going for them at this point is the familiarity of their operating system vs Linux or Apple's OSX acting a barrier keeping the Windows market segment alive; but even this will be eroded with time.
For those of you not very familiar with Linux and it's capabilities, I recommend that you take a chance to check out the power of a Linux desktop. The compiz fusion desktop is very impressive, though still in development. Though this desktop is somewhat computer resource hungry as it is beautiful, there are plenty of other configurations that will allow a cheap computer to run with ease. All of this software and the majority of applications can be had for free.
With my recent troubles with laptops, I will definitely be investing in at least one desktop system (and perhaps a second cheap system to experiment with Linux). Linux will be making its way into the mainstream. It is only a matter of time.
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